What Can Latvia Learn from Ireland’s Hydrogen Export Strategy?
Ireland’s hydrogen export study provides a strategic blueprint for renewable hydrogen scale-up through offshore wind integration and phased transport development. The lessons are directly applicable to Latvia and the Baltic States as they evaluate their own role in the emerging European hydrogen economy.
NEWS
HydrogenLatvia
2/16/20263 min read
Ireland has taken a decisive step: it is not only planning for domestic hydrogen deployment — it is actively positioning itself as a future net exporter of renewable hydrogen to continental Europe.
The recent government-commissioned study evaluates offshore wind-based hydrogen production, export routes, cost competitiveness and derivative options such as ammonia and methanol. The conclusions are strategically relevant far beyond Ireland. What does this mean for Latvia and the Baltic States?
Why Is Ireland Confident It Can Become a Hydrogen Exporter?
The core finding is striking: Ireland’s renewable hydrogen production potential significantly exceeds projected domestic demand.
Even under high domestic demand scenarios (up to 39 TWh by 2050, and up to ~75 TWh including aviation and maritime), offshore wind-powered hydrogen production could create surplus volumes suitable for export.
Ireland models three export scenarios based on offshore wind capacity dedicated to hydrogen:
Low scenario: ~22 ktpa
Base scenario: ~215 ktpa
High scenario: ~430 ktpa
The strategic insight: build scale early and use export as a demand stabiliser to de-risk domestic hydrogen industry development.
What Role Does Offshore Wind Play?
Hydrogen production in Ireland is directly linked to offshore wind expansion:
5 GW offshore wind target by 2030
37 GW long-term ambition by 2050
The study assumes that large-scale offshore wind capacity (up to 7.5 GW in the high scenario) could be dedicated to hydrogen production.
Admittedly, conversion losses are significant:
Only ~25% of installed offshore wind capacity is ultimately converted into usable hydrogen after generation, grid and electrolysis losses. This technical realism strengthens the credibility of the modelling.
Key takeaway: Offshore wind + electrolysis integration must be planned as a single system, not as separate infrastructure streams.
Pipelines or Shipping — What Wins?
Ireland evaluated:
Repurposed natural gas interconnectors
New hydrogen pipelines
Shipping (compressed hydrogen, liquid hydrogen, ammonia, methanol)
Key conclusions:
At low volumes (~22 ktpa): shipping is more cost-effective
At medium and high volumes (215–430 ktpa): pipelines become cheaper
Repurposing existing gas interconnectors to the UK and connecting into the European Hydrogen Backbone is the lowest-cost pipeline solution
Among shipping options, ammonia (NH₃) is currently the most cost-effective vector
This phased export logic is highly relevant for the Baltic Sea region.
Parallels with Latvia and the Baltic States
While Latvia lacks Ireland’s offshore wind scale, there are important structural similarities:
Strong renewable electricity base (wind + biomass)
Strategic maritime position
Existing gas transmission infrastructure
Industrial decarbonisation pressure across Northern Europe
The Irish study provides a methodological template that Latvia can adapt.
Where Are the Opportunities for Latvia & the Baltics?
Offshore Wind-to-Hydrogen Integration in the Baltic Sea
Develop hydrogen-dedicated offshore wind corridors
Align with Baltic offshore wind interconnection projects
Co-locate electrolysers at ports (Riga, Ventspils, Liepāja)
2.Hydrogen Derivatives as Early Export Vectors
Prioritise green ammonia production for maritime fuel
Integrate with Baltic shipping decarbonisation strategies
Position ports as bunkering hubs for ammonia/methanol
Gas Grid Repurposing Strategy
Assess hydrogen-readiness of Baltic gas networks
Align with European Hydrogen Backbone planning
Pursue further cross-border hydrogen corridors (NBHC: LT–LV–EE–FI)
Export as Market Stabilisation Tool
Use export contracts to:
Secure bankability of electrolysis projects
Anchor large-scale investments
De-risk hydrogen valleys
Hydrogen Storage Development
Ireland highlights storage as a bottleneck for power-sector integration. For Latvia:
Underground gas storage (e.g., Inčukalns) could become a strategic hydrogen storage asset
Seasonal storage could support grid balancing across the Baltic region
Regional Baltic Hydrogen Cluster Model
Ireland identifies hydrogen clusters (Cork, Shannon, Dublin). The Baltics could establish:
Riga / Ventspils / Liepaja industrial / maritime hydrogen clusters
Klaipėda maritime hydrogen cluster
Tallinn clean fuels innovation hub
Strategic Insight: Export First, Scale Domestic Later?
Ireland proposes that hydrogen export can act as an anchor offtaker to accelerate industry scale-up. For Latvia, this may be even more critical due to:
Smaller domestic industrial hydrogen demand
Need to justify electrolyser gigafactories
Financing constraints in emerging hydrogen markets
Export-driven scaling could unlock:
Industrial decarbonisation
Synthetic fuels production
Power-sector flexibility
Conclusion: A Baltic Hydrogen Export Playbook?
Ireland’s study demonstrates that hydrogen export feasibility is not a political slogan — it is a systems-level exercise combining:
Offshore wind capacity modelling
Electrolysis conversion efficiency
Transport vector economics
Infrastructure repurposing
Strategic sequencing
For Latvia and the Baltic States, the question is no longer whether hydrogen export is possible — but: Can we coordinate early enough to capture first-mover advantage in Northern Europe?
Source: Exporting Hydrogen from Ireland