A new capability for Latvia: dynamic modelling that connects the dots
We’re sharing an important milestone: a new dynamic modelling tool has been developed by the team of Latvian scientists to help Latvia see the whole energy-and-climate system in one coherent picture. It’s exactly the kind of capability we need to test realistic pathways to climate neutrality and to understand where hydrogen, batteries, and Power-to-X can deliver the most value.
HydrogenLatvia
2/10/20263 min read
Latvia's transition is no longer a set of separate projects' it's a tightly coupled system where grid constraints, storage, industry, and transport decisions amplify (or cancel) each other.
That's why we welcome the news that a new dynamic modelling tool has been developed. The key promise is straightforward: it can help decision-makers and stakeholders move from isolated assumptions to an integrated, system-level view.
Crucially, the tool is designed to look beyond the electricity sector alone. To reach climate neutrality, in ideal case we have to model a broad spectrum of sectors together:
Energy (electricity + heat)
Transport
Industry
Agriculture
LULUCF (land use, land-use change and forestry)
Waste
This cross-sector coverage matters because real-world decarbonisation is driven by interactions between sectors, not by any single technology.
Why "whole-system" modelling is now non-negotiable
Once variable renewable generation scales up, the main challenge stops being megawatts on paper and becomes system behaviour in real life hour by hour, season by season.
A good dynamic, integrated model should help us answer practical questions Latvia keeps running into:
Where and when will curtailment appear as wind and solar expand?
Which grid constraints become binding, and what is the least-cost way to relieve them?
What is the right flexibility portfolio across time scales: demand response, BESS, interconnectors, hydro, thermal storage, hydrogen, synthetic fuels?
What happens during low-wind weeks or extended cold periods when electricity and heat demand peak together?
How do we decarbonise industrial heat without creating unrealistic electricity peaks?
Which measures improve energy independence and reduce exposure to imported fuels and price volatility?
This is the difference between a transition that looks good in annual averages and one that works under stress.
Batteries are essentialyet not sufficient
Battery energy storage systems (BESS) are a cornerstone of short-term flexibility. They can smooth intraday variability and provide fast response services. But BESS is, by design, short-duration storage. Latvia's security-of-supply challenge is also about multi-day events, winter peaks, and resilience. That requires a portfolio approach.
Hydrogen's role: a system asset across sectors
Hydrogen is often discussed as a single use-case. In a whole-system view, it is better treated as a flexibility and value-chain platform that can link electricity, heat, transport, and industry.
1) Long-duration energy storage (LDES) complementing BESS
Electrolysers can convert surplus renewable electricity into hydrogen when prices are low or curtailment would otherwise occur. That hydrogen can later support:
Industrial heat
Feedstock needs
(Where appropriate) power generation and balancing
The key point is not that hydrogen replaces batteries, it supplements them by covering longer time horizons.
2) Transport fuel and Power-to-X (PtX) building block
For heavy-duty transport, maritime, and aviation pathways, molecules remain difficult to replace fully with direct electrification.
Hydrogen and its derivatives can become a strategic lever for Latvia if we approach them as an industrial opportunity:
Use surplus renewable generation when available
Or purposefully build renewables + electrolysis as an integrated export-oriented asset
That is the PtX logic: turning local renewable resources into higher-value products that can travel.
3) Industrial heat and decarbonisation, plus valorisation of by-products
Industrial decarbonisation is not only about electricity. A large share of energy demand is heat, including high-temperature heat.
Hydrogen can contribute as a fuel or reducing agent in specific processes. And electrolysis also creates by-products that can be valorised in industrial clusters:
Waste heat (potentially useful for district heating integration or industrial symbiosis, depending on temperature levels)
Oxygen (valuable for certain industrial processes)
A modelling-led approach helps quantify when these synergies are real (and bankable) versus when they are only theoretical.
Energy sufficiency and independence: the strategic frame
In Latvia, it's easy to drift into a single metric, installed capacity, annual MWh, or a headline emissions number. A more resilient frame is:
Energy sufficiency: reduce waste, prioritise efficient end-use, and avoid building demand that adds little value.
Energy independence: reduce exposure to imported fuels and external price shocks.
Local renewable generation is the foundation, but independence is achieved only when generation is combined with:
Grid reinforcements and smart operation
Storage across time scales (BESS + LDES options)
Sector coupling that turns variability into industrial opportunity
What we hope this new tool enables next
Tools alone are not the answer, capability and consistent use are.
Our hope is that this new dynamic modelling tool becomes a shared foundation to:
Test scenarios transparently across sectors (energy, transport, agriculture, LULUCF, waste, industry)
Compare assumptions openly
Stress-test security-of-supply and resilience
Identify the most robust investment sequence (generation, grid, storage, hydrogen/PtX)
The takeaway
If Latvia wants a system that is clean and secure, we have to stop treating renewables, storage, hydrogen, and end-use sectors as separate tracks.
A dynamic, cross-sector modelling capability is how we see the interactions and how we avoid expensive mistakes.
Hydrogen, in that system view, is not a slogan. It is a potential long-duration flexibility option, a transport and industrial decarbonisation pathway, and a platform for PtX industries that can turn renewable surplus into export value.
The next step is to use this new capability to model pathways honestly grounded in Latvian grid realities, demand profiles, and industrial opportunities and then build only what survives that scrutiny.
Source: Klimata neitralitātes lēmumu modeļi darbībā
Source: LinkedIn post